Before you consider joining, read the work. This archive contains years of our market analysis and unvarnished post-mortems on both winners and losers. It is the foundation upon which The Circle is built, and the single best way to understand our approach.
We invite you to judge for yourself.
Malcolm Shaw sets his investment theme for 2021 as the Metal Ox—dependable and unyielding—committing to the energy and materials sectors (rocks, trees, and dirt). He asserts that these sectors, long in survival mode, are poised for significant returns due to chronic underinvestment and favorable macro trends, with money just beginning to trickle in from institutional players. Malcolm Shaw details his major holdings across Energy (highlighting Transglobe Energy (TGL.TO) as potentially the "cheapest oil stock in the market" trading at less than 1x EV/Cash Flow), Uranium (betting heavily on Nexgen (NXE.TO) as the "best undeveloped deposit on the planet"), Base Metals (Copper Mountain and nickel stocks like FPX Nickel), and Precious Metals (Gatos Silver and New OroPeru). He concludes by listing a few dividend payers and highly speculative bets in Bitcoin and the Tech sector (Maxar Technologies and Poet Technologies).
AAV.TO|ATU.V|AZZ.TO|BIR.TO|CCO.TO|CMMC.TO|CUR.V|DCMC.TO|DML.TO|ENB.TO|EU.V|FOM.V|FPX.V|GATO.TO|GLO.TO|KRR.TO|MAXR.TO|MEG.TO|NTR.TO|NXE.TO|ORO.V|PDM.TO|PG.TO|PTK.V|QBTC.TO|TAO.V|TECK.B.TO|TGL.TO|TLO.TO|TOU.TO|TXP.TO|URC.TO|VS.C
Malcolm Shaw analyzes Transglobe Energy’s (TGL.TO) "transformational" new Petroglobe production sharing contract (PSC) in Egypt. By restructuring the fiscal terms, TGL’s netbacks at US$50 Brent are projected to jump **125%**, increasing annual cash flow from US$24 million to US$56 million. With a current Enterprise Value of approximately CDN$66 million, Malcolm Shaw calculates TGL is trading at a stunningly low 0.9x EV/Cash Flow multiple—what he calls "half of dirt cheap." He projects a modest growth case for 2022 (13,000 bopd at US$60 Brent) that could boost cash flow to CDN$110 million, suggesting the stock could reach CDN$3.00 (a 2x multiple) or higher, even without factoring in the company's Canadian assets.
TGL.TO
Malcolm Shaw provides an updated, bullish view on the energy and materials sectors, driven by global reflation, massive liquidity, and pent-up demand. He argues that the oil sector is poised for a major boom due to a slow supply response from producers prioritizing debt repayment and dividends over growth, which will exacerbate the supply imbalance by mid-2021. Malcolm Shaw then focuses on specific energy holdings: he has trimmed Touchstone (TXP.TO) after its positive Cascadura Deep results, but retains conviction that the company is on a path to either being bought or generating significant free cash flow. He also details his rationale for buying two "absurdly cheap" oil stocks during tax loss selling: Pan Orient Energy (POE.V), which is trading at a huge discount to its NAV, and TransGlobe Energy (TGL.TO), whose new Egyptian concession agreement is deemed "transformational," potentially adding 59 million barrels of contingent resources and drastically increasing netbacks by US$9-11 per barrel at US$60 Brent. He concludes that the TGL deal makes it one of the cheapest oil stocks he has found in recent memory.
POE.V|TGL.TO|TXP.TO
Malcolm Shaw addresses market volatility, arguing it stems from an overconcentration in specific tech/retail stocks and a resulting split between overvalued and undervalued silos. He believes stimulus is imminent post-US election, which, combined with pent-up demand from COVID-19 lockdowns, will lead to scarcity and inflation. Malcolm Shaw reiterates his long-term bullish focus on Energy, Gold, and Materials—sectors he believes will benefit most from inflation and the "green energy" transition. He highlights copper and nickel for electrification and anticipates an oil supply shortage in H2 2021/2022 due to years of underinvestment and ESG-driven capital flight. He then details his portfolio, emphasizing value plays like Nutrien (NTR.TO), gas producers (Spartan Delta (SDE.V)), cheap gold miners (Karora Resources (KRR.TO)), lithium explorers (Neo Lithium (NLC.V)), and Maxar Technologies (MAXR.TO) as a free-cash-flow space bet.
AAV.TO|AGI.TO|ARX.TO|BIR.TO|CMMC.TO|CNC.TO|CRE.V|CS.TO|FM.TO|FPX.V|HBM.TO|IMG.TO|KRR.TO|LAC.TO|MAXR.TO|NLC.V|NPK.TO|NTR.TO|PGZ.V|SDE.V|SURG.V|TAO.V|TLO.TO|TOU|TOU.TO|TXP.TO
The market is currently defying the "summer doldrums" due to massive global liquidity and a surge of "deferred demand" ready to drive economic activity, fueling the reflation/inflation trade and benefiting the materials and energy sectors. The article provides extensive updates across the portfolio, highlighting gold (with Minera Alamos up 600% and deep value in Battle North Gold), the battery metals trifecta of lithium, nickel, and manganese, and the energy sector (bullish on natural gas leaders like Advantage and Spartans, and cautiously adding oil exposure). Malcolm Shaw stresses the exceptional value of New OroPeru (ORO.V), trading at just US$14/oz with Barrick's option deadline approaching, and makes a high-conviction bet on Maxar Technologies (MAXR.TO) as a free-cash-flow space play poised to break out from heavy short interest.
AAV.TO|ATU.V|BIR.TO|BNAU.TO|CNC.V|CNQ.TO|CPG.TO|CYP.V|EMN.V|FPX.V|LAC.TO|MAI.V|MAXR.TO|NLC.V|NRN.V|NTR.TO|ORO.V|PG.TO|SDE.V|TECK.B.TO|TLO.TO|TOU.TO|TXP.TO|WCP.TO|YGR.TO
Malcolm Shaw analyzes Elon Musk's plea for miners to produce more "environmentally friendly nickel" for the electric vehicle transition, even without a major price spike. He argues that while Musk calls for efficiency, chronic underinvestment means price is the true driver of new supply. Malcolm details his Canadian nickel basket, highlighting three key companies. He is particularly focused on FPX Nickel's Baptiste Deposit, which uses a unique awaruite metallurgy that results in non-acid generating tailings capable of sequestering CO2, directly addressing Musk's environmental demands. He also notes the scale of Canada Nickel's Crawford Project and the high-grade nature of Talon Metals' Tamarack Project as significant supply sources.
CNC.V|FPX.V|GIGA.V|NAN.TO|S.TO|TLO.TO
Malcolm Shaw is highly impressed with Touchstone Exploration's (TXP.TO) maiden Cascadura reserves estimate, which beat all prior market expectations. The report confirms net 2P reserves of 234 BCF of gas and 6 Mmbbls of associated liquids, yielding a net before-tax NPV10 of $519.2 million. Malcolm Shaw emphasizes the extremely low Future Development Capital (FDC) of only $15.8 million required to unlock this massive cash flow stream, demonstrating the concept of "free cash flow." He states that the company's valuation, even using the industry rule-of-thumb of "$1/mcf" and assigning zero value to other assets, would suggest a target of **C$1.25/share**, and he believes the stock is poised for growth akin to a "super-fast-forward" version of Canacol Energy's development.
CNE.TO|TXP.TO
The market is defying the "summer doldrums," fueled by global liquidity and massive "deferred demand" that is stacking up for resource and industrial sectors. The overall strategy focuses on a bullish rotation from growth into value and commodities (gold, energy, and materials) in anticipation of future inflation and supply shortages. Key gold holdings like New OroPeru (ORO.V) are trading at extreme value ($\text{US\$14/oz}$) ahead of a looming decision deadline involving Barrick. High conviction is placed on battery metals (lithium, nickel, manganese) and major diversified resource names (Teck, Nutrien). The author views the energy sector as primed for an oil squeeze in H2 2021 due to chronic underinvestment. A major bet is on Maxar Technologies (MAXR.TO), a space-tech play considered grossly undervalued with a tight share structure and high short interest ahead of its next-gen satellite launch.
ARX.TO|ATU.V|CHE.UN.TO|ENB.TO|NTR.TO|ORO.V|ORS.V|SDE.TO|TECK.B.TO|TXP.TO|YGR.TO
The article presents Malcolm Shaw's detailed scenario analysis for Touchstone Exploration (TXP.TO), arguing that the risk-reward is now highly asymmetric based on the Cascadura discovery alone. He establishes a base case value of C$1.65 per share by using the 2004 takeout of a similar Trinidad asset (Aventura) and adjusting the valuation for today's gas price (US$3.00/mcf), valuing Cascadura (assumed 200 BCF net to TXP) at C$1.50/mcf. This base case value is nearly 200% higher than the stock's current price of C$0.55. Malcolm Shaw then outlines the **incremental option value** from successful drilling at the larger Chinook prospect (estimated +C$0.50 to +C$2.00 per share) and the Cascadura Deep target (estimated +C$0.50 to +C$2.00 per share), leading to a range of potential outcomes from C$1.65 to C$5.85 per share, all for a stock that is currently undervalued.
TXP.L|TXP.TO
Malcolm Shaw details his high conviction in New OroPeru (ORO.V), a stock he describes as an "illiquid relic" that has been completely off the market's radar for years. He highlights that ORO's Tres Cruces gold project contains over three million ounces of gold, yet is trading at an implied valuation of just US$4/ounce in the ground. The asset's strategic value is immense because it is located only 10 kilometres from Barrick's Lagunas Norte mine, which is currently running out of oxide ore, and Barrick holds an option agreement on the Tres Cruces asset that expires at the end of the year. Malcolm Shaw's analysis, based on two decades of scattered project history, reinforces his view that this undervalued asset is poised for action.
ORO.V
Let's be pragmatic. Malcolm's 5-year CAGR is +73.77%. We are not promising you will replicate that. However, as a thought experiment, consider the math: at the Annual Rate, the barrier to profitability is trivial.
A portfolio of ~$7,890 capturing just one-quarter of that return would generate more than the cost of your lifetime-locked membership.)
"Deep research, insightful analysis, and integrity. That’s what Malcolm has delivered for the 20 years I've been following him."
"Malcolm became an invaluable mentor from afar, teaching me that true success in investing isn’t about chasing headlines, it’s about doing the hard work."
"It's been awesome being in Malcolm's inner circle — I've learned so much about both mining and energy plays over the years. He helped me navigate the rollercoaster through COVID when everything felt uncertain. Having access to his ideas has been a total game-changer."
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