Before you consider joining, read the work. This archive contains years of our market analysis and unvarnished post-mortems on both winners and losers. It is the foundation upon which The Circle is built, and the single best way to understand our approach.
We invite you to judge for yourself.
Malcolm Shaw argues that 2022 could be the year money "really sloshes into hard assets," driven by inflation and investor flight from high-tech valuations, resembling past commodity bull markets. He is focused on deeply undervalued energy stocks like Africa Oil (AOI) (trading at ~60% of NPV, poised for dividend/buyback) and Yangarra (YGR) (trading at ~20% of 1P reserves) as they harvest massive free cash flow. In the secular space, he highlights the strategic value of Commerce Resources (CCE)—North America's largest, highest-grade Rare Earth Element deposit—and believes Critical Elements (CRE), trading at a huge discount 0.36x NAV, is poised to re-rate once its final lithium permits are secured. He remains bullish on Uranium (NXE, U.UN) and expects a significant M&A step-change for Tenaz Energy (TNZ) this year.
AAV.TO|AGI.TO|AMC.V|AOI.V|CCE.V|CRE.V|EMM.V|FCX.US|FIL.TO|FOM.V|HBM.TO|LUC.TO|MPVD.TO|NAN.TO|NETZ.C|NICU.V|NOT.TO|NPK.TO|NPR.V|NSE.V|NTR.TO|NXE.TO|POE.V|PRYM.V|RPX.V|SPC.V|STRR.V|SURG.V|TAO.V|TECK.B.TO|TGL.TO|TLO.TO|TNZ.V|U.UN.TO|VLE.TO|XYZ.V|YGR.TO
Malcolm Shaw is moving into a selective, cash-heavy "alpha" strategy, focusing on high-conviction, event-driven stocks that offer outsized value in a commodity market driven by inflation and energy shortages. He highlights: Advantage Energy (AAV), with upside potential from its embedded Entropy carbon capture subsidiary (projected to be half the cost of competitors); Anacortes Mining (XYZ), a high-grade Peruvian gold deposit (20-year obscurity, similar to a Prime Mining replay) with drilling expected to start in Q1 2022; Tenaz Energy (TNZ), where he is patiently waiting for the management team to execute on its corporate goal of reaching 50,000 boepd; Verde Agritech (NPK), a fertilizer "rockstar" benefiting from strong sales and fully funded expansion; and deeply discounted stocks like Valeura Energy (VLE) (trading 20% below cash value) and Yangarra (YGR).
AAV.TO|B.V|CRE.V|EMM.V|NPK.TO|NSE.V|SURG.V|TAO.V|TNZ.V|U.UN.TO|VLE.TO|XYZ.V|YGR.TO
Malcolm Shaw highlights that compounding factors (policy, renewables, LNG dynamics) have created a "rogue wave" of natural gas shortages and high prices, which is confounding markets and driving inflation globally. He is shifting focus from "beta" to higher-risk "alpha" special situations that offer step-changes in value. He cites Anacortes Mining (XYZ), a high-grade Peruvian gold deposit set for a potential Prime Mining replay with drilling expected in Q1 2022. He is patient with Tenaz Energy (TNZ) and New Stratus Energy (NSE) as they pursue accretive acquisitions. Shaw remains extremely bullish on Advantage Energy (AAV), which he calls a huge opportunity due to its Entropy carbon capture subsidiary (targeting half the cost of competitors) and notes deeply discounted stocks like Valeura Energy (VLE) (trading 20% below cash value) and Yangarra (YGR) (trading near its PDP reserve value).
AAV.TO|AMI.V|AOI.V|ARX.TO|ATH.TO|ATU.V|BIR.TO|BTE.TO|CJ.TO|CPG.TO|CPI.TO|ERF.TO|MEG.TO|NSE.V|POE.V|RBY.TO|TAO.V|TNZ.V|TOU.TO|TVE.TO|TXP.TO|VLE.TO|WCP.TO|YGR.TO
Malcolm Shaw notes that the recent textbook correction in resource stocks, bringing valuations from "low fair value" to "cheap," has created excellent entry points. He is confident in the durability of the commodity theme (electrification for copper, capital discipline for oil). He highlights Advantage Energy (AAV), which is finding new highs as its Entropy subsidiary—projected to be far superior to Aker Carbon Capture—readies a capital raise to peg a market value. The biggest new "special situation" is the recapitalization of Altura (ATU), which is trading at less than half of the implied asset value of its Leduc-Woodbend field. The new structure, led by former Vermillion CEO Tony Marino, has a plan to grow the producer to 100,000 boepd via acquisitions, with the first deal expected before year-end, providing a massive, undervalued opportunity.
AAV.TO|ARX.TO|ATU.V|BIR.TO|CMMC.TO|TAO.V|TNZ.V|TOU.TO|YGR.TO
Malcolm Shaw argues that global net-zero policies are transforming carbon dioxide into a massive new commodity market, comparable in size to the oil market. He highlights Advantage Energy (AAV)'s new subsidiary, Entropy Inc., as a potential game-changer. Entropy has developed a modular, scalable, point-source carbon capture technology that is projected to be commercially profitable at a carbon price below $50 per tonne, potentially half the cost of existing technology. This "Holy Grail" technology, capable of capturing approximately 90% of CO2 emissions from hard-to-decarbonize sectors (like power, cement, and steel), is set for its first full-scale deployment at AAV's Glacier gas plant in Q2 2022. Shaw views Entropy as a free, highly scalable call option within AAV's current valuation, which already reflects the value of its core gas assets.
AAV.TO|WCP.TO
Malcolm Shaw is unfazed by general commodity market volatility, maintaining conviction in the energy and metals sectors due to deep fundamental value and long-term themes (The Great Restart, Green New Deal). The focus of the day is a major special situation: New OroPeru (ORO) has secured a $20 million investment from First Light Capital (led by former Equinox Gold COO Jim Currie, who will become the new CEO). This changing of the guard is a profound validation of the Tres Cruces asset, which sits 10–12 km from Boroo's Lagunas Norte mine. The shallow, leachable oxide gold at Tres Cruces represents 500,000 recoverable ounces with an estimated $400–$500 million in undiscounted cash flow and minimal CAPEX, making it the perfect bolt-on to jumpstart Lagunas Norte. The entry of this high-caliber team means ORO is no longer subject to Boroo's whims, enabling a re-rate based on the new management's ability to either "go it alone" (a Prime Mining-like scenario) or negotiate from a position of strength.
ORO.V|PRYM.V
Following a strong recovery in 2020, the author discusses shifting focus towards energy and materials, believing these sectors are entering a massive upswing similar to the recent rally in copper. The article details a portfolio strategy emphasizing value over growth, highlighting scaling back big copper winners (like Freeport and Capstone) near fair value to invest in smaller exploration/pre-development stories and larger, 'boring' companies (like Teck and Nutrien). The author is particularly optimistic about the oil sector, viewing it as lagging copper by about nine months, and provides a comprehensive breakdown of over twenty individual energy and resource holdings, from low-cost gas producers to high-leverage oil plays and uranium/iron ore juniors, all while stressing the importance of conviction and long-term holding.
AAV.TO|ATH.TO|ATU.V|BTE.TO|CJ.TO|CMMC.TO|CPI.TO|CS.TO|ERF.TO|FCX.US|GIII.V|MEG.TO|NTR.TO|TAO.V|TECK.B.TO|TGL.TO|TPL.TO|TRP.TO|TVE.TO|WCP.TO|YGR.TO
Malcolm Shaw details his extremely bullish view on the oil market, driven by OPEC's decision to control supply and prioritize high prices, effectively imposing a rolling backwardation structure. He argues that energy stocks are still "really, really cheap" despite their rally, generating undeniable free cash flow that is forcing the market to recognize their value. Malcolm Shaw provides a deep dive into his oil stock basket, focusing on names with exceptional leverage to high oil prices (like ATH and BTE), massive tax pools making them potential M&A targets (like MEG and CJ), and companies with uniquely favorable valuations, such as TGL, which he calculates is trading at less than 1x its exit 2021 cash flow run rate after its recent PSC renegotiation. He also addresses the ESG debate, challenging the hypocrisy of shunning oil while relying on it for the "Green Transition."
ATH.TO|ATU.V|BTE.TO|CJ.TO|CPG.TO|MEG.TO|TAO.V|TGL.TO|WCP.TO|YGR.TO
Malcolm Shaw argues that the market is heading into a "Roaring Twenties redux" fueled by massive stimulus and infrastructure spending, positioning him as a patient, long-term buyer of energy and materials. He is most optimistic about oil, noting that the sector is trading with 15-20%+ free cash flow yields and at historically low multiples, despite being set for a massive surge in demand as the "rocket fuel" required for the green energy transition. He highlights that Baytex Energy (BTE) is positioned as the high-leverage option (similar to Copper Mountain Mining a year ago), while Whitecap Resources (WCP) is approaching a critical $6 resistance level that could unlock a run to the $9–$10 range. Capstone Mining (CS) remains a core holding in the metals basket.
BTE.TO|CMMC.TO|CS.TO|WCP.TO
Malcolm Shaw analyzes the new resource update from New Oroperu (ORO.V) concerning its Tres Cruces gold deposit, focusing heavily on the shallow, high-grade oxide component. Malcolm Shaw highlights that the 630,000 ounces of leachable gold resource boast impressive grades, translating to high operating margins (estimated at US$1000/oz net of operating costs). He believes this low-capex, high-margin asset, which could be developed as a standalone heap leach operation (US$50-80 million capex) or feed a nearby facility, presents US$400 million in undiscounted operating margin, net of capex, against a very low market cap. He concludes that the oxide gold acts as a "jet fuel" starter project, unlocking the much larger, underlying refractory sulphide resource of over 1.8 million ounces, offering significant optionality and making ORO an undervalued triple-threat asset.
OLA.TO|ORO.V|PRYM.V
Let's be pragmatic. Malcolm's 5-year CAGR is +73.77%. We are not promising you will replicate that. However, as a thought experiment, consider the math: at the Annual Rate, the barrier to profitability is trivial.
A portfolio of ~$7,890 capturing just one-quarter of that return would generate more than the cost of your lifetime-locked membership.)
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