Before you consider joining, read the work. This archive contains years of our market analysis and unvarnished post-mortems on both winners and losers. It is the foundation upon which The Circle is built, and the single best way to understand our approach.
We invite you to judge for yourself.
Despite a chorus of recession fears, this update argues that buoyant index charts signal a stock/sector picker's market, where patience and a focus on undervalued "special situations" are key. Malcolm Shaw maintains high conviction in the energy sector, highlighting Tenaz Energy (TNZ) as an extreme value play trading at only $\sim\mathbf{1x\ EV/CF}$ and positioning for a major M&A re-rate. He also details the immediate, high-stakes catalyst for Tag Oil (TAO), which just successfully completed the fracture stimulation on its Egyptian vertical well and is now set to announce flow rates that will confirm the economic viability of its full horizontal development plan. Finally, he notes that gold charts are flashing bullish signals (golden cross, cup-and-handle breakouts), suggesting the undervalued and under-owned gold sector is primed for a run.
Despite a chorus of recession fears — this update argues that buoyant index charts signal a stock/sector picker's market where patience and a focus on undervalued "special situations" are key.
Malcolm Shaw maintains high conviction in the energy sector — highlighting Tenaz Energy (TNZ) as an extreme value play trading at only $\sim$1x EV/CF and positioning for a major M&A re-rate.
He also details the immediate, high-stakes catalyst for Tag Oil (TAO) — which just successfully completed fracture stimulation on its Egyptian vertical well and is now set to announce crucial flow rates that will confirm the economic viability of its full horizontal development plan.
Finally, Shaw notes that gold charts are flashing bullish signals (golden cross, cup-and-handle breakouts) — suggesting the undervalued and under-owned gold sector is primed for a significant run.
AEM.TO|AMC.TO|AOT.TO|ARX.TO|ASCU.V|ASND.V|CJ.TO|CMMC.TO|CRE.V|CS.TO|CXB.TO|FDY.TO|FWZ.V|GGD.TO|GMIN.V|HBM.TO|HSTR.V|MAI.V|NGD.TO|NICU.V|ODV.TO|PNRL.V|PRYM.V|PXT.TO|STGO.TO|SURG.V|TAO.V|TLG.TO|TNZ.TO|VET.TO|VLE.TO|VZLA.V|XYZ.V
Despite a chorus of recession fears, this update argues that buoyant index charts signal a stock/sector picker's market, where patience and a focus on undervalued "special situations" are key. Malcolm Shaw maintains high conviction in the energy sector, highlighting Tenaz Energy (TNZ) as an extreme value play trading at only 1x EV/CF and positioning for a major M&A re-rate. He also notes that gold charts are flashing bullish signals (golden cross, cup-and-handle breakouts), suggesting the undervalued and under-owned gold sector is primed for a run.
Despite a chorus of recession fears — this update argues that buoyant index charts signal a stock/sector picker's market where patience and a focus on undervalued "special situations" are key.
Malcolm Shaw maintains high conviction in the energy sector — highlighting Tenaz Energy (TNZ) as an extreme value play trading at only $\sim$1x EV/CF and positioning for a major M&A re-rate.
He also notes that gold charts are flashing bullish signals (golden cross, cup-and-handle breakouts) — suggesting the undervalued and under-owned gold sector is primed for a significant run.
AAV.TO|AEM.TO|AOI.TO|ARX.TO|ASCU.V|ASND.V|CJ.TO|CMMC.TO|CRE.V|CS.TO|FWZ.V|NICU.V|PNRL.V|SURG.V|TAO.V|TNZ.TO|UEC.US|VLE.TO
Malcolm Shaw declares the potential return of the J.E.D.I. (Juniors who Explore and Develop Internationally) to the market, naming Tenaz Energy (TNZ), Valeura Energy (VLE), and Tag Oil (TAO) as his "holy trinity" of international junior energy stocks positioned for massive growth in 2023. He focuses on Tenaz Energy's recent, fully-funded, non-dilutive acquisition in the Dutch North Sea, which increased its 2023 cash flow per share by 160% and leaves the stock trading at a minuscule 1.5x EV/CF on 2023 numbers. Shaw notes that Valeura Energy's recently announced transformative Thai acquisition continues to "mystify" analysts with its upside, with projections pointing toward $100M+ in net cash by year-end 2023. Finally, Tag Oil is set for a major catalyst in mid-January 2023 as it re-enters and fracks its vertical well in the Egyptian ARF, with successful flow rates expected to set the stage for a 50+ million barrel recoverable resource and horizontal development. All three small-cap companies (market caps under $150M) are forecast to reach $500M+ market caps with solid execution, offering a superior value proposition compared to overvalued mining exploration plays.
TAO.V|TNZ.TO|VLE.TO
Malcolm Shaw details the M&A arbitrage revealed by Valeura Energy's (VLE) 125% stock jump following its Thai acquisition. The thesis argues that major energy sellers prioritize handing off non-core assets to quality, capable teams over maximizing the headline sale price. This results in deal structures where the buyer, like VLE, assumes a decommissioning liability that acts as a low-cost, flexible-maturity debt. By extending the field life through optimization and drilling, the buyer unlocks years of unburdened cash flow, creating immense value torque for shareholders (e.g., VLE's early analyst targets of $4.50 to $8.25). Shaw concludes that this development validates his high-conviction position in Tenaz Energy (TNZ), which he believes, due to its quality management and tight 28 million share structure, is positioned to execute a similarly transformative and highly accretive deal.
This analysis by Malcolm Shaw details the M&A arbitrage dramatically revealed by Valeura Energy's (VLE) 125% stock jump following its Thai acquisition.
The core thesis is that major energy sellers prioritize handing off complex non-core assets to quality, capable teams over maximizing the headline sale price. This results in deal structures where the buyer, like VLE, assumes a decommissioning liability — which effectively acts as a low-cost, flexible-maturity debt.
By extending the field life through expert optimization and drilling, the buyer unlocks years of unburdened cash flow — creating immense value torque for shareholders (e.g., VLE's early analyst targets of $4.50 to $8.25). Shaw concludes that this development validates his high-conviction position in Tenaz Energy (TNZ) — which he believes, due to its quality management and tight 28 million share structure, is uniquely positioned to execute a similarly transformative and highly accretive deal.
TNZ.TO|VLE.TO
The current "anemic" speculative market has created a bargain bin of junior resource stocks, which Malcolm Shaw views as an opportunity to find undervalued treasures. He highlights the extreme value in Goliath Resources (GOT), a gold stock flying under the radar with a potential 6–8 million ounce high-grade Surebet discovery in the Golden Triangle, currently trading for less than $20/oz on a simple valuation basis ahead of key assay results. Shaw also strongly defends Tenaz Energy (TNZ), asserting that it is trading at a "mind-blowingly stupid" discount significantly below its conservative fair value of $2.45/share (vs. the current $1.57), making it a serious contender for a massive re-rate as it pursues its 100,000 boepd M&A growth plan. Additionally, he spotlights Advantage Energy (AAV) for the non-conventional upside in its Entropy carbon capture subsidiary and notes that Critical Elements Lithium (CRE) is poised for a major move once its final Quebec permit is secured.
The current "anemic" speculative market has created a bargain bin of junior resource stocks — which Malcolm Shaw views as a prime opportunity to find undervalued treasures.
He highlights the extreme value in Goliath Resources (GOT) — a gold stock flying under the radar with a potential 6–8 million ounce high-grade Surebet discovery in the Golden Triangle. GOT is currently trading for less than $20/oz on a simple valuation basis ahead of key assay results.
Shaw also strongly defends Tenaz Energy (TNZ) — asserting that it is trading at a "mind-blowingly stupid" discount significantly below its conservative fair value of $2.45/share (versus the current $1.57). This makes TNZ a serious contender for a massive re-rate as it aggressively pursues its 100,000 boepd M&A growth plan.
Additionally, he spotlights Advantage Energy (AAV) for the non-conventional upside in its Entropy carbon capture subsidiary — and notes that Critical Elements Lithium (CRE) is poised for a major move once its final Quebec permit is secured.
AAV.TO|CJ.TO|CRE.V|EOG.V|GASX.V|GOT.V|MP.US|NICU.V|PNRL.V|TAO.V|TNZ.TO
Malcolm Shaw advocates for investing in isolated, high-conviction "lakes and rivers" to ignore market noise. He maintains a bullish stance on Uranium (Nexgen being the "King Maker") and Lithium (Critical Elements is the cheapest/most advanced hardrock project). In the energy sector, Cardinal Energy (CJ) is the ideal high-yield dividend stock, while Tenaz Energy (TNZ) is expected to land a value-accretive M&A deal by year-end. He flags Eco Atlantic (EOG) for its imminent drill on a 300 million barrel oil target and Goliath Resources (GOT) for a "can't miss" gold discovery with massive tonnage potential.
AAV.TO|AOI.TO|ARX.TO|CCO.TO|CRE.V|CVV.V|DML.TO|EFR.TO|EOG.V|GLO.TO|ITE.TO|NXE.TO|PNRL.V|SWN.US|TAO.V|TNZ.TO|U.UN.TO|XYZ.V
Following the breaking of the commodity market "streak" due to recession fears, Malcolm Shaw is shifting into a defensive, selective strategy, favoring assets with independent catalysts. He remains highly convicted in Tenaz Energy (TNZ) as a cheap, "uncorrelated" would-be acquirer that benefits from falling prices. He highlights several international energy stocks (AOI, EOG, ITE, SEI, NSE) with imminent drill catalysts expected in H2 2022, and maintains his long-term bets on strategic commodities like Critical Elements (CRE) (lithium) and Nexgen (NXE) (uranium), while favoring natural gas names (AAV, ARX) heading into winter.
Following the breaking of the commodity market "streak" due to recession fears — Malcolm Shaw is shifting into a defensive, highly selective strategy, favoring assets with independent catalysts.
He remains highly convicted in Tenaz Energy (TNZ) — calling it a cheap, "uncorrelated" would-be acquirer that benefits from falling prices by making M&A cheaper.
Shaw highlights several international energy stocks with imminent drill catalysts expected in H2 2022 — including Africa Oil (AOI), Eco Atlantic (EOG), I3 Energy (ITE), Serica Energy (SEI), and New Stratus Energy (NSE).
He also maintains his long-term bets on strategic commodities like Critical Elements (CRE) (lithium) and Nexgen (NXE) (uranium) — while favoring natural gas names (Advantage Energy (AAV), ARC Resources (ARX)) heading into the winter season.
AOI.TO|ARX.TO|BIR.TO|CRE.V|EOG.V|ITE.TO|NAN.V|NSE.V|SEI.V|TAO.V|TNZ.TO|XYZ.V
The market's flight from "growth" to "value" and "commodities" has left energy and resource stocks holding up well, though volatility remains high. Malcolm Shaw is running with high cash levels (15-20%) to capitalize on irrational selling and avoid being a forced seller in a potential sharp downturn (like the 2008 crash). He maintains high conviction in natural gas due to a multi-year structural bull market (LNG exports) and expects Arc Resources (ARX) and Advantage Energy (AAV) to make new highs. He highlights two major deals: Tenaz Energy (TNZ)'s highly accretive acquisition of SDX Energy (pro-forma EV/DACF of 1x and Valeura Energy (VLE)'s Thai offshore acquisition (expected $1.25/share value on execution). In the fertilizer space, Verde Agritech (NPK)'s new PFS showed a massive post-tax NPV of $2.91 Billion (for the base case), and the long-awaited drilling program for the high-grade Anacortes Mining (XYZ) gold project in Peru has finally begun.
The market's flight from "growth" to "value" and "commodities" has left energy and resource stocks holding up well — though volatility remains high.
Malcolm Shaw is running with high cash levels (15-20%) to capitalize on irrational selling — and avoid being a forced seller in a potential sharp downturn (like the 2008 crash).
AAV.TO|ARX.TO|CJ.TO|CPG.TO|ERF.TO|ERTH.C|NPK.TO|TAO.V|TNZ.TO|VET.TO|VLE.TO|XYZ.V
Malcolm Shaw draws parallels between today's market and the 1970s commodity boom, arguing that chronic underexposure and geopolitical shocks will drive a secular bull market. He highlights Advantage Energy (AAV) for the massive non-conventional upside provided by the Brookfield-backed Entropy Carbon Capture technology and Critical Elements (CRE), which is trading at a deep discount 0.36x NAV while awaiting final Quebec lithium permits. In energy, he stresses the deep value in high-yield stock Cardinal (CJ) and Africa Oil (AOI) (trading at half its conservative NAV) and flags Eco Atlantic (EOG)'s imminent drill on a 300 million barrel oil target as a major H2 catalyst.
AAV.TO|ABX.TO|AEM.TO|AGI.TO|AMC.V|AOI.TO|ARX.TO|B.V|BCU.V|CCE.V|CJ.TO|CRE.V|DML.TO|DPM.TO|EMM.V|EMN.V|EOG.V|EQX.TO|EU.V|FOM.V|GLO.TO|GWM.V|HBM.TO|LGO.TO|NAN.V|NEM.US|NICU.V|NPK.TO|NPR.V|NTR.TO|NXE.TO|OSK.TO|RUP.V|SEI.V|SV.US|TNZ.V|U.UN.TO|UEX.TO|VET.TO|XYZ.V|YGR.TO
Malcolm Shaw notes that high inflation and the geopolitical events in Ukraine are confirming gold and energy as the primary shelters for capital, as aggressive Fed rate hikes may not solve supply-driven inflation. He highlights a massive, yet unconfirmed, oil find (Venus-1) offshore Namibia, which he believes could drive his holding, Africa Oil (AOI), to $4/share if confirmed. He rotated into Cardinal Energy (CJ) for its low decline rate and projected 11.4% dividend yield at current prices. Tenaz Energy (TNZ) remains a high-conviction buy, trading at underlying NAV, while he patiently waits for an accretive M&A deal. In gold, he favors Osisko Mining (OSK) and Anacortes Mining (XYZ), which is set to begin drilling in April. Finally, he spotlights the world-class North American Nickel (NAN) asset package (potential 25-100 million tonnes with CATL backing) as a must-watch nickel play.
AAV.TO|ABX.TO|AEM.TO|AOI.TO|B.V|BCU.V|CJ.TO|EOG.V|NAN.V|NPK.TO|NPR.V|OSK.TO|SEI.V|TAO.V|TNZ.V|XYZ.V|YGR.TO
Let's be pragmatic. Malcolm's 5-year CAGR is +73.77%. We are not promising you will replicate that. However, as a thought experiment, consider the math: at the Annual Rate, the barrier to profitability is trivial.
A portfolio of ~$7,890 capturing just one-quarter of that return would generate more than the cost of your lifetime-locked membership.)
"Deep research, insightful analysis, and integrity. That’s what Malcolm has delivered for the 20 years I've been following him."
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"It's been awesome being in Malcolm's inner circle — I've learned so much about both mining and energy plays over the years. He helped me navigate the rollercoaster through COVID when everything felt uncertain. Having access to his ideas has been a total game-changer."
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