Do Your Own Due Diligence.

Before you consider joining, read the work. This archive contains years of our market analysis and unvarnished post-mortems on both winners and losers. It is the foundation upon which The Circle is built, and the single best way to understand our approach.

We invite you to judge for yourself.

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Pre-Circle
March 20, 2020

Altura Reports 2019 Full Year and Updates on 2020

March 20, 2020
Malcolm Shaw

Altura Energy (ATU.V): The Hibernation Strategy
This update summarizes Altura Energy's (ATU.V) financial health and strategy for navigating the severe market downturn. Reporting solid 2019 pre-crisis metrics — including $13 million cash flow from operations ($\$0.13$/share) — the company is now focused on survival.
The Leduc Woodbend waterflood pilot failed at 200m spacing, but the company’s conservative plan still expects an 8–10% recovery factor without it. The Entice Pekisko well has been shut in to conserve capital until prices improve.
Crucially, Altura is one of the least leveraged in the sector, with Net Debt of just $0.6 million (end of 2019). This pristine balance sheet allows management to hunker down and go into hibernation — turning the Leduc Woodbend asset into a large "tank of oil in the ground" that ensures the company survives the "remarkable carnage" and is ready for recovery.

ATU.V

Pre-Circle
March 11, 2020

Touchstone's Second Cascadura Test Delivers Another Beast-like Rate of 5,500 Boepd

March 11, 2020
Malcolm Shaw

Malcolm Shaw discusses the incredible results from Touchstone Exploration's (TXP.TO) Cascadura-1 well, where the second tested zone flowed at rates that maxed out testing equipment. The well is now estimated to be capable of initial production between 40-50 mmcf/d of gas and over 1,100 barrels/day of high-value condensate (up to 9,700 boepd). Malcolm Shaw notes that the discovery, which is located close to infrastructure in a gas-starved market, is comparable to a major historical gas find. Despite the current volatile market, he views the news as exceptionally positive, with further exploration at the Chinook and Royston prospects expected to add more fuel to the fire.

An Incredible, Maxed-Out Discovery
The incredible results from Touchstone Exploration's (TXP.TO) Cascadura-1 well are discussed — where the second tested zone flowed at rates that maxed out testing equipment.
The well is now estimated to be capable of initial production between 40-50 mmcf/d of gas and over 1,100 barrels/day of high-value condensate (up to 9,700 boepd). The author notes that the discovery, which is located close to infrastructure in a gas-starved market, is comparable to a major historical gas find.
Despite the current volatile market, the news is viewed as exceptionally positive, with further exploration at the Chinook and Royston prospects expected to add more fuel to the fire for this company.

TXP.TO, AAV.TO, ACU.V, AMC.V, ARX.TO, ATH.TO, ATU.V, AU.V, CAD.V, CANX.V, CD.V, CMMC.TO, CRE.V, CRON.TO, CS.TO, DXY, FCX.US, FM.TO, GLDX.V, JOSE.TO, LUG.TO, MAI.V, MIN.TO, MUR.V, NGEX.V, NLC.V, NRN.V, NUG.V, ORS.V, OSS.V, PHO.TO, PONY.TO, STGO.TO, SUNM.V, TGL.TO, TV.TO, VET.TO

Pre-Circle
March 7, 2020

March Madness

March 7, 2020
Malcolm Shaw

Malcolm Shaw details his response to extreme market volatility and the coronavirus crisis, moving to approximately 50% cash. He notes that gold is demonstrating its crisis-weathering properties and remains bullish on gold stocks. Malcolm Shaw's small collection of "Sacred Cows" includes high-conviction, catalyst-driven stories: Touchstone Exploration (TXP.TO), which is funded for drilling and has imminent test results; Altura Energy (ATU.V), which trades at a massive discount to its NAV; and long-term electrification plays Neo Lithium and Critical Elements. He attributes the market panic to the "novel threat" perception of the coronavirus, magnified by aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts and the 10-year U.S. yield falling below 1%. Malcolm Shaw concludes that governments injecting liquidity reinforces the bullish case for gold and gold stocks while fear dominates the broader market.

Crisis Response: 50% Cash and Gold as a Sacred Cow
In response to extreme market volatility and the coronavirus crisis — the author details moving to approximately 50% cash. Gold is noted to be demonstrating its crisis-weathering properties — and the author remains bullish on gold stocks.
The "Sacred Cows"
The author's small collection of "Sacred Cows" includes high-conviction, catalyst-driven stories that warrant holding through the panic:
  • Touchstone Exploration (TXP.TO): Funded for drilling and has imminent test results pending.
  • Altura Energy (ATU.V): Trades at a massive discount to its NAV.
  • Long-Term Electrification Plays: Neo Lithium and Critical Elements.
The current market panic is attributed to the "novel threat" perception of the coronavirus, magnified by aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts and the 10-year U.S. yield falling below 1%. The author concludes that governments injecting liquidity reinforces the bullish case for gold and gold stocks while fear dominates the broader market.

ATU.V|CRE.V|GILD|MAI.V|NLC.V|NRN.V|TXP.TO

Pre-Circle
February 4, 2020

The Wisdom of Chumbawamba

February 4, 2020
Malcolm Shaw

The market is highly volatile, with Malcolm Shaw noting a sell-off in commodities due to the coronavirus, followed by a bounce-back. He is defensively holding cash but maintains high conviction in several core assets. He is adding to Neo Lithium (NLC.V), believing the EV revolution will drive demand for quality lithium deposits. He highlights Touchstone (TXP.TO) for its exploration success, with the CEO suggesting the company could become the largest onshore producer in Trinidad by 2021. Malcolm Shaw details several microcap exploration bets like Orestone (ORS.V) and Canex (CANX.V), where the skewed risk/reward justifies a small position. He also notes the return of an old flame, Burcon NutraScience (BU.TO), whose plant-based protein technology recently attracted a product development partnership with Nestle, capitalizing on the strong sustainability trend.

High Conviction in Volatility: Lithium, Oil, and Sustainable Tech
The market is highly volatile, with a sell-off in commodities due to the coronavirus followed by a bounce-back. The author is defensively holding cash but maintains high conviction in several core assets.
Core Conviction Plays
  • Neo Lithium (NLC.V): The author is adding to this position, believing the EV revolution will drive sustained, strong demand for quality lithium deposits.
  • Touchstone (TXP.TO): Highlighted for its exploration success, with the CEO suggesting the company could become the largest onshore producer in Trinidad by 2021—a major, near-term catalyst.
  • Burcon NutraScience (BU.TO): The return of an "old flame" is noted. This plant-based protein technology recently attracted a product development partnership with Nestle, capitalizing on the strong sustainability trend in food technology.
Microcap Exploration Bets
The author details several microcap exploration bets like Orestone (ORS.V) and Canex (CANX.V) — where the skewed risk/reward profile justifies holding a small, high-leverage position.

ATU.V|BU.TO|CAD.V|CANX.V|CD.V|NLC.V|ORS.V|TXP.TO

Pre-Circle
January 21, 2020

Touching on Touchstone

January 21, 2020
Malcolm Shaw

Malcolm Shaw details his modest long position in Touchstone Exploration (TXP) following its Cascadura-1 well, which initially indicated a massive oil find but was recently confirmed to be a high-pressure gas discovery across over a thousand feet of pay. Despite the product change, Malcolm Shaw views the find as having a skewed risk-reward profile, arguing the stock's market capitalization does not yet reflect the potential materiality of Cascadura, especially considering the previously known, quickly monetizable Coho gas discovery. Test results are anticipated in early February.

Skewed Risk-Reward on Gas Find
A modest long position in Touchstone Exploration (TXP) is detailed following its Cascadura-1 well — which, after initially indicating a massive oil find, was confirmed to be a high-pressure gas discovery across over a thousand feet of pay.
Despite the product change, the find is viewed as having a skewed risk-reward profile. The author argues that the stock's market capitalization does not yet reflect the potential materiality of Cascadura — especially when considering the previously known, quickly monetizable Coho gas discovery.
Crucial test results are anticipated in early February — providing the next major catalyst for this deeply discounted asset.

TXP.TO

Pre-Circle
January 20, 2020

A Little Bit of Everything

January 20, 2020
Malcolm Shaw

Malcolm Shaw assesses the state of the market three weeks into January, noting strong price action and optimism across the gold and resource sectors, with the TSX Venture Index notably up. He maintains a multi-year bullish view on resources despite some volatility in his energy holdings (where he stopped out of his Arc Resources and trimmed Advantage Oil and Gas). Malcolm Shaw provides detailed updates on his mining and exploration stocks: he highlights Capstone Mining and Neo Lithium for positive momentum; anticipates key catalysts from ongoing drilling at Arizona Metals and imminent results from Azimut Exploration; and addresses poor sentiment at Cantex Mine Development and Sun Metals where investor patience is low. He emphasizes that the keys to long-term success in the volatile junior sector are strict risk management (position sizing) and diversification across new ideas.

Resource Optimism: Gold Rally and Strict Risk Management
This assessment notes strong price action and optimism across the gold and resource sectors three weeks into January, with the TSX Venture Index notably up. A multi-year bullish view on resources is maintained, driven by underlying fundamentals.
Energy Sector and Risk Management
Despite the bullish resource outlook, the author notes volatility in energy holdings, leading to strict risk management actions:
  • Stopping out of Arc Resources.
  • Trimming Advantage Oil and Gas.
This underscores the emphasis that the keys to long-term success in the volatile junior sector are strict risk management (position sizing) and diversification across new ideas.
Mining and Exploration Updates
Detailed updates are provided across the mining and exploration portfolio:
  • Positive Momentum: Highlighted for Capstone Mining and Neo Lithium.
  • Key Catalysts Anticipated:
    • Ongoing drilling at Arizona Metals.
    • Imminent results from Azimut Exploration.
  • Poor Sentiment: The author addresses low investor patience at Cantex Mine Development and Sun Metals.

AAV.TO|ACU.V|AMC.V|ARX.TO|AZM.V|CAD.V|CANX.V|CD.V|CRON.TO|CS.TO|MIN.TO|NLC.V|ORS.V|PONY.TO|SUNM

Pre-Circle
January 3, 2020

2020 Vision in the Year of the Metal Rat

January 3, 2020
Malcolm Shaw

Malcolm Shaw is optimistic about a coordinated, sustained rally in materials, energy, and gold for 2020, driven by chart evidence, bullish investment bank calls, and a weakening U.S. Dollar. He notes that energy is benefiting from constrained U.S. shale capital, record demand, and a new corporate focus on free cash flow over growth. Copper is bullish due to aging mines and massive green energy demand, while gold is strong above US$1500/oz supported by the Fed's stance. Malcolm Shaw outlines his strategy of casting a "very wide net" across the Canadian resource market, listing detailed rationale for numerous holdings, from high-leverage oil and gas producers (like Athabasca Oil and TransGlobe Energy) to base metal explorers, gold juniors, and specialized niche materials and tech plays.

Energy, Materials, and Gold Aligned
An optimistic view is shared regarding a coordinated, sustained rally in materials, energy, and gold for 2020 — driven by strong chart evidence, bullish investment bank calls, and a weakening U.S. Dollar.
Sector Drivers
  • Energy: The sector is benefiting from constrained U.S. shale capital, record demand, and a new corporate focus on free cash flow over growth.
  • Copper: The outlook is bullish due to aging mines and massive green energy demand.
  • Gold: Gold is confirmed to be strong above US$1500/oz — supported by the Federal Reserve's accommodative stance.
The author outlines a strategy of casting a "very wide net" across the Canadian resource market. This involves listing detailed rationale for numerous holdings, spanning high-leverage oil and gas producers (like Athabasca Oil and TransGlobe Energy) to base metal explorers, gold juniors, and specialized niche materials and tech plays.

AAV.TO|ACU.V|AMC.V|ARX.TO|ATH.TO|ATU.V|AU.V|CAD.V|CANX.V|CD.V|CMMC.TO|CRE.V|CRON.TO|CS.TO|DXY|FCX.US|FM.TO|GLDX.V|JOSE.TO|LUG.TO|MAI.V|MIN.TO|MUR.V|NGEX.V|NLC.V|NRN.V|NUG.V|ORS.V|OSS.V|PHO.TO|PONY.TO|STGO.TO|SUNM.V|TGL.TO|TV.TO|VET.TO

Pre-Circle

Touchstone Confirms Cascadura Discovery with 5,180 Boepd Test

Malcolm Shaw

Malcolm Shaw reports on the initial, highly successful test results from Touchstone Exploration's (TXP.TO) Cascadura-1 well in Trinidad, which confirmed a significant gas-condensate discovery. The lowermost zone flowed at an average of 27.1 mmcf/d of gas and 660 barrels/day of high-value liquids, with the CEO calling the well a 'beast' because it maxed out the testing equipment. Malcolm Shaw notes that while patience is required for development (including future drilling of the Chinook and Royston prospects), he believes this is a real project developing that will transform the company over the next year.

Maxing Out Testing
Reporting on the initial, highly successful test results from Touchstone Exploration's (TXP.TO) Cascadura-1 well in Trinidad — a significant gas-condensate discovery has been confirmed.
The lowermost zone flowed at an average of 27.1 mmcf/d of gas and 660 barrels/day of high-value liquids. The author notes the CEO’s quote that the well is a "beast" because its output maxed out the testing equipment.
While patience is required for development (including future drilling of the Chinook and Royston prospects) — the author believes this is a real project developing that will transform the company over the next year.

TXP.TO

The Math on The Membership

Let's be pragmatic. Malcolm's 5-year CAGR is +73.77%. We are not promising you will replicate that. However, as a thought experiment, consider the math: at the Annual Rate, the barrier to profitability is trivial.

A portfolio of ~$7,890 capturing just one-quarter of that return would generate more than the cost of your lifetime-locked membership.)

What Others Say

"Deep research, insightful analysis, and integrity. That’s what Malcolm has delivered for the 20 years I've been following him."

— Gordon B

"Malcolm became an invaluable mentor from afar, teaching me that true success in investing isn’t about chasing headlines, it’s about doing the hard work."

— Dennis B


"It's been awesome being in Malcolm's inner circle — I've learned so much about both mining and energy plays over the years. He helped me navigate the rollercoaster through COVID when everything felt uncertain. Having access to his ideas has been a total game-changer."

— Peter N
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